Expect the Unexpected: Anticipating Volatility in Today’s Housing Market
You’ve probably noticed one thing if you’re thinking about making a move: the housing market feels a bit unpredictable right now. The truth is, from home prices to mortgage rates, we’re seeing more volatility – and it’s important to understand why. At a high-level, let’s break down what’s happening and the best way to navigate it. What’s Driving Today’s Market Volatility? Factors like economic data, unemployment numbers, decisions coming out of the Federal Reserve (The Fed), and even the presidential election, are creating uncertainty right now – and uncertainty leads to market volatility. You can see that when you look at what’s happening with mortgage rates. New economic reports and other geopolitical events have an impact and can cause sudden shifts up or down, even though experts still forecast rates will come down overall. We’ve seen that effect play out recently, like when employment and inflation data get released each month. And as the markets react, these types of updates will continue to have an impact on rates moving forward. As Greg McBride, CFA, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, says: “After steadily declining throughout the summer months, I expect more ups and downs to mortgage rates . . . Job market data will be closely watched as well as any clues from the Fed about the extent of upcoming interest rate cuts.” This is exactly why the projected decline in mortgage rates isn’t going to be a straight line down over the next year. As Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com, explains: “Rates have shown considerable volatility lately, and may continue to do so . . . Overall, we still expect a downward long-term mortgage rate trend.” Plus, home prices and the number of homes on the market vary dramatically depending on where you’re looking to buy or sell, which makes it even harder to get a clear picture. In some areas, home prices are rising and inventory is tight, while in others, there are more homes available and it’s leading to more moderate pricing shifts. As all of this unfolds, understanding what’s happening will help you make the right decisions, whether that’s buying or selling. And there’s one easy way to get that information: from a professional. The Importance of Partnering with a Pro While the road ahead may have some bumps and unexpected turns, you don’t have to go it alone. A great agent will keep you up to date on the latest market developments, guide you through any shifts, and help you make smart decisions based on your goals. For example, as mortgage rates change, professionals (like your agent and a trusted lender) will explain how the shifts impact what you can reasonably plan for in your monthly payment. This will help you see how even a small change in rates can impact your bottom line – that way you don’t lose sight of the big picture even as shifts happen here and there. And since conditions can vary significantly from one neighborhood to another, your agent will also help you understand the specifics of your market—whether it’s how to navigate competition with other buyers, the number of homes available, or what’s happening with local home prices. Their insights and expertise will help you adapt to any movement in the market. Bottom Line The housing market may be experiencing some shifts, but don’t let it stop you from making your move. With the support of an experienced real estate agent and a trusted lender, you’ll be ready to navigate the changes and make the most of the opportunities that come your way. Let’s turn any uncertainty into your advantage, helping you move forward with confidence.
Why Home Sales Bounce Back After Presidential Elections
With the 2024 Presidential election fast approaching, you might be wondering what impact, if any, it’s having on the housing market. Let’s break it down. Election Years Bring a Temporary Slowdown In any given year, home sales slow down slightly in the fall. It’s a typical, seasonal trend. However, according to data from BTIG, in election years there’s usually a slightly larger dip in home sales in the month leading up to Election Day (see graph below): Why? Uncertainty. Many consumers hold off on making major decisions or purchases while they wait to see how the election will play out. It’s a pattern that’s shown up time and time again, and it's particularly apparent for buyers and sellers in the housing market. This year is no different. A recent survey from Redfin found that 23% of potential first-time homebuyers said they’re waiting until after the election to buy. That’s nearly a quarter of first-time buyers hitting the pause button, likely due to the same feelings of uncertainty. Home Sales Bounce Back After the Election The good news is these delayed sales aren’t lost forever—they’re just postponed. History shows sales tend to rebound after the election is over. In fact, home sales have actually increased 82% of the time in the year after the election (see chart below): That’s because once the election dust settles, buyers and sellers have a sense of what’s ahead and generally feel more confident moving forward with their decisions. And that leads to a boost in home sales. What To Expect in 2025 If history is any indicator, that means more homes will sell next year. And based on the latest forecasts, that’s exactly what you should expect. As the graph below shows, the housing market is on pace to sell a total of 4.6 million homes this year, and projections are for 5.2 million total sales next year (see graph below): And that aligns with the typical pattern of post-election rebounds. So, while it might feel like the market is slowing down right now, it’s more of a temporary dip rather than a long-term trend. As has been the case before, once the election uncertainty passes, buyers and sellers will return to the market. Bottom Line It’s important to remember that while election years often bring a short-term slowdown in the housing market, the pause is usually temporary. Those sales are not lost. Data shows home sales typically increase the year after a Presidential election, and current forecasts indicate 2025 will be no different. If you’re waiting for a clearer picture before making a move, just know that the market is expected to pick up speed in the months ahead.
Planning To Sell Your House in 2025? Start Prepping Now
If your goal is to sell your house in 2025, now’s the time to start prepping. Even though it might seem like there’s plenty of time between now and the new year, you should get a head start on any updates or repairs you want to make now. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, says: “ . . . now is the time to start thinking about what you need for your next home and then taking those steps to prepare to list . . . We have survey data that says 47 percent of sellers are taking longer than a month to get their home ready to sell, so getting them to start that process early can mean more flexibility.” By starting your prep work early, you’ll give yourself plenty of time to get your house market-ready by the end of the year. But be sure to partner with a great agent before you get started, so you have expert insight into what repairs are worth it based on your local market. Why Starting Early Is Key To get the best price and sell quickly, it’s important that your home looks its best. And that means it’s up to you to make the necessary repairs, declutter, and even consider updates that could add value as part of getting your house ready to list. By starting now, you can tackle things one task at a time. Whether it’s fixing that leaky faucet, refreshing your landscaping, or painting a room, getting an early start gives you the flexibility to do the job right and with as little stress as possible. Because, if you wait to knock items off your list later on, they could quickly stack up and get overwhelming. As Realtor.com explains: “There are some important repairs to make before selling a house, so don’t be in too much of a hurry to get your home listed … if you move too fast, buyers see right through the fact that you skipped important home renovations. And this . . . might end up costing you time and money.” What Should You Focus On? Feeling motivated to start chipping away at that to-do list, but not sure where to start? Here’s a look at the most common improvements other sellers are making today (see graph below): The Importance of Working with a Local Agent And while that data gives you a starting point, it shouldn’t be seen as a comprehensive list. What buyers want in your area may be different, and only a local agent will have this in-depth understanding. For example, if homes in your area are selling quickly with updated kitchens, your agent might suggest focusing on minor kitchen improvements rather than spending money on other areas that won’t offer as much return. They’ll also help you figure out if tackling larger projects, such as replacing your roof or upgrading your HVAC system, is worth it based on other recently sold homes. As Point says: “Not all renovations are created equal, and focusing on upgrades that offer the highest potential for increasing your home's value is key.” And remember, it’s not just big-ticket items that can have an impact. Your agent will also speak to some of the smaller details – like cleaning up your yard, adding fresh mulch, or painting your front door – to make a real difference in how buyers feel about your home. This type of expert eye is crucial to help your house sell fast and for top dollar. Bottom Line Thinking of selling your house next year? Don’t wait until the last minute to get it ready. By getting a head start now, you can ensure everything is in place by the time the new year rolls around. Need advice on what to tackle first? Let’s connect, or tap here to get access to our free 6-month seller checklist!
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